Saturday, March 24, 2012

Mumbai 25 March 2012

 Please note that this is my opinion about today's races. You are your own boss, and your decision is your baby.

1        1.   TARA-ASLAN.          

Unusual pattern for Arzaan, which has allowed Aslan a 10.5 L reversal over a weight shift of 5 Kg. Arzaan has returned to its winning rating of 25, but has done nothing of note in the past 5 outings. I expect Arzaan to win its next race, with a jockey who fits in re weight.

2    STEP UP-DÉJÀ VU-HOME FACTOR.

Déjà Vu, drawn 12, zig-zagged through a crowd and stepped on the gas only when clear, about 150m from home. Won convincingly. Though conceding 5.5 Kg to Step Up, it might well beat Step Up again.

3.      ESKIMO-ZOOM ZOOM-RISING POWER

4.  TOLSTOY- CAPRIOLE-NEATH-LIVING THE DREAM

The horses pretty much select themselves. In the case of Neath, the filly should come up well despite its formless jockey, running 1 Kg overweight. If he fails, Living The Dream, with some aggressive running these last 4 races, should slide into third slot. But then, Neath has run in Classic company.

5.      ONASSIS- BERLUSCONI

One year ago, on 27 Mar 2011, SPRINT STAR, carrying 59 Kg in an 1800 m race, came in a 3L 4th to ONASSIS. The terms are exactly the same today. On 22 Oct 2011, CIELO RAY, receiving 8.5 Kg from ONASSIS, won a 2000m race by 43/4 L. They are running at par today. ONASSIS is 1.5 Kg superior to NATIVE KNIGHT(25 Dec  2011), which is 5.5 Kg superior to BERLUSCONI (12 Feb 2012).   

6.      VITTORIA-DEMONSTRATOR-PEPE JUNIOR

VITTORIA has never crossed swords with either DEMONSTRATOR or RAJASTHAN ROYALS. The last named has beaten DEMONSTRATOR, but at Pune at a time when DEMONSTRATOR was on a weight reducing mission. DEMONSTRATOR has beaten RAJASTHAN ROYALS when in receipt of 0.5 Kg by 2.5L on 26 Feb 2012. I believe that RAJASTHAN ROYALS is a Pune horse. PEPE JUNIOR has his best chance to place today.

7.      SOLID ROCK- HURRICANE BIRD- FANTASTIC KINGDOM-BONNY LIGHT

SOLID ROCK is best placed, but its trainer is inscrutable. BONNY LIGHT has reached its win zone, but is from the old brigade. Hurricane Bird has an excellent chance to win. FANTASTIC KINGDOM has an equally good chance to place.

8.      ASHWA YODHAA- RAJDOOT- GOLDEN KINGDOM- HILL RANGER   
All that is certain is that Ashwa Yodhha will Place. Hill Ranger is an unknown element.       



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